In a shock move Monday, the Milwaukee Bucks announced that they would not re-sign power forward Charlie Villanueva. This set off quite a ruckus locally as most fans assume he will soon be a Cleveland Cavalier. The NBA free agency officially begins at midnight on July 1.

It’s worth noting that the Cavs’ situation is way more complex than most fans can appreciate. Everyone wants to win now, but everyone also wants to have a team set up to jump at a major free agent in 2010 like Chris Bosh. Danny Ferry has to figure out if he wants to do both and if so, how to do it.

Dan Gilbert has said he wants to win now, so let’s start there. Andy will officially opt out of his contract and test the market. That means the roster as of right now is, Shaq, LeBron, Z, Mo, Delonte, Darnell, J.J., Gibson, Danny Green, Tarence Kinsey, and Jawad Williams. A projected starting lineup is Shaq, Darnell, LeBron, Mo, and Delonte. Z, J.J., Gibson, and Green are likely the first 4 off the bench. The Cavs then have a mid-level exception (about $5-6 million) to offer to a free agent, and possibly the bi-annual exception ($2 million). Andy’s salary last year was $5.7 million and he is expected to command at least $8 million to re-sign, which the Cavs could pay using the “Bird” rights.

Everyone is expecting that to happen. But what if the Cavs let Andy go? It’s a question that hit me this morning. The Cavs have 2 young power forwards (Darnell and J.J.) that are of similar size and could conceivably do similar things as Andy. Then they’re going to, allegedly, sign Charlie V. with the mid-level exception. Villanueva is a power forward, but of a very different mold than Andy. Do you roll the dice on Darnell and/or J.J. becoming that “energy” guy off the bench and replacing Andy outright? What if that $2-3 million saved this year could be the key next year to offering a max contract to Chris Bosh? Then your starting frontcourt in 2010 would be Bosh, Villanueva and LeBron, presumably with Darnell and J.J. on the bench. Isn’t that better than Andy, Villanueva and LeBron with the same bench?

The immediate concern is this upcoming season. Some have said that Villanueva isn’t really an upgrade over Andy. I vehemently disagree. CV actually has a shot. Andy generated more offense last season because LeBron got him the ball on cuts to the basket. It was exceedingly rare to see Andy knocking down shots from the mid-range or even closer. CV lives in the mid-range and likes shooting from outside too. Some have questioned his shot selection, but that seems overblown because he still made 45% from the field and 34% from three point range. And that’s where he fits in well with the Cavs’ offense. Andy can’t shoot from the outside and can’t really create his own shot. CV is quicker and more athletic, plus teams know he can shoot from outside. His mere presence helps open up the floor and spread the defense.

Villanueva’s defense has been pointed out as a negative. I agree that there should be some concern over that, but wasn’t Mo Williams in the same boat? CV’s athleticism gives him the tools to be a good defender, but that’s not an emphasis with the Bucks. Mike Brown and LeBron should certainly be able to make CV a serviceable defender in the Cavs system. And speaking of systems, those people who think Andy is a great defender are mistaken. He’s a product of the system and is average in that system. Take him outside the Cavs system, and I bet people stop referring to Andy as a great defender.

Try this. Drop 30 pounds off of Andy and speed up his feet, then make his lateral quickness and burst better. He’d be a much better defender in the Mike Brown system, right? He’d be able to show and recover quicker and still have the height to affect shots inside. Guess what. That’s Villanueva. He’s the same height as Andy, but 30 pounds lighter. Everyone says he’s very athletic, which basically means he has quicker feet and better lateral movement than Andy ever will. He’s never been asked to block shots or play help defense in Milwaukee, but he’s got the size and skills to do Andy’s defensive job on the Cavs even better than Andy did.

And while we’re at it, would Anderson Varejao be a starter on any of the other elite teams in the NBA? I say no. So why are we convinced that the Cavs even want to overpay for Andy when they can grab Villanueva cheaper and upgrade the power forward position significantly? They’re going to pay an extra $2-3 million for “energy” and “chemistry?” I’m not sure I buy it.

I guess the bottom line is that the Cavs could do just about anything right now and nothing would surprise me. Given my arguments above, if I was Danny Ferry, I would try to sign Charlie Villanueva with the MLE, wave goodbye to Andy, then use the BAE on a guard. I prefer Von Wafer (check his size, stats, and price to see why he’s a perfect fit). This would all be contingent upon Detroit or some other yahoos not offering more than the MLE, which is possible, to grab CV. He’s said he wants to play with LeBron. Would he take less money to do it?

We’ll find out soon enough. The future, both immediate and for the next several years, may depend upon the actions Danny Ferry takes in the coming weeks.