They announced the Oscar nominations last week and overall, there weren’t a lot of surprises to be had. With the exception of the Best Actress, every major category looks like it has a lock. So, if I give my list of who is going to win I should look like a genius, but if things are not as they look, then I may feel foolish by the end of Oscar night. I’ll take my chances:

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique should have this all wrapped up for her performance in Precious. While Maggie Gyllenhaal is excellent as the girlfriend who is weary of her country music singin’ alcohol chuggin boyfriend in Crazy Heart, and the two female stars of the George Clooney film Up in the Air are very good in their roles, no one in this category can compare to Mo’Nique’s incendiary performance in Precious. She owns the screen from the moment she appears on it. “A Ha!” you say; I failed to mention Penelope Cruz for Nine. No I didn’t. I would rather come up with a list of other actresses that should have her spot than think of that movie again.

Best Supporting Actor

Okay, I’ll admit it, I have only seen two of the five movies that are nominated in this category( I‘m working on it), but that won’t stop me (and every other Oscar fanatic) from putting my money on Christoph Waltz for his work in Quentin Tarantino’s Inglorious Basterds. I have never seen Waltz in anything other than Basterds, but now I just want to watch everything that he’s ever been in. He makes you squirm in your seat as the evil Nazi Hans Lund (AKA the Jew hunter, by his comrades), and I have watched Basterds a dozen times just to take in Waltz’s performance.

Best Actress

This may be one of the harder of the major categories to pick. It’s not that it’s a crowded field (Helen Mirren, Carey Mulligan & Gabourey Sidibe thanks for coming, take a gift bag on your way out), but there are two actresses here that are giants of the film world. You have Meryl Streep, nominated for a spot on performance as Julia Child in Julie & Julia. It’s another amazing piece of work by Streep, who always makes acting seem so effortless. But Sandra Bullock is closing in fast with her performance as a woman who takes in a troubled youth and helps to guide him toward a better path in The Blind Side. If you would have asked me when the nominations came out if Bullock had a shot, I would have said “no way” and then probably talked behind your back about your lack of film couth, but now I can only shrug my shoulders and hope that Mrs. Streep can fend off Bullock.

Best Actor

I think you’re looking at Jeff Bridges for the win here. He’s been nominated before (Starman anyone), but as the hard playing and even harder drinking Bad Blake in Crazy Heart he really captivates. It is an amazing performance and certainly deserving of a Best Actor win. George Clooney is fine in Up in the Air, but it comes off as if he is playing himself. The other standout in this category is Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker. Renner plays SFC William James, a soldier who specializes in dismantling road side bombs in Iraq. it’s a very cerebral war movie that deals more with the addictive “rush” that danger can bring and how hard it is to live without it. Renner sells the character perfectly, and while he won’t win this time out, he has set himself up to be a yearly fixture at Oscar time if he plays his cards right.

Best Picture

Okay, so the big story this year is that for the first time since the 1940’s the Academy has chosen to nominate ten films for Best Picture consideration. I could do a whole article on how I feel about this (short answer: why not have 10), but lets just get on with it. First, lets chop out the ones we know won’t win; District 9 (love seeing you there, but not a chance), The Blind Side, An Education, Up (enjoy the best animated film win), A Serious Man (I love this movie), Up in the Air, Precious (great movie, but a tough year), and Inglorious Basterds. That leaves us with two films standing; James Cameron’s Avatar and The Hurt Locker. I would love to see The Hurt Locker take it all. Its my pick for best film of the year, but I don’t vote, and no one saw it. On the other hand, everyone saw Avatar, and it’s a very good movie. It’s the popular vote and sometimes the Oscars are an event where friends pick their friends for wins, and while I am sure Katherine Bigelow (the director of Hurt Locker) is loved in Hollywood, she works outside the system and James Cameron does not, in fact, he pretty much is the system right now. So I think Avatar will win the best picture award, and while I would love to whine and moan about how The Hurt Locker is a better movie, its hard to argue against a film that has changed the whole world of cinema.